A few years after the pandemic sidelined a lot of trips and Zoom loomed large, business travel is going strong and a global trade organization ranks Colorado among the top states where business travelers are spending their money.
A 2024 report by the Global Business Travel Association said business travelers spent a little over $7 billion in Colorado, making it No. 7 nationally in terms of economic impact. The business industry supported roughly 98,541 jobs in Colorado and generated $5.5 billion in total wages and other income, the report said.
California was No. 1 with $35.6 billion in total money spent. The numbers are from 2022, but Suzanne Neufang, CEO of the GBTA, said they are indicative of ongoing trends.
The GBTA, which held a convention last week in Denver at the Colorado Convention Center, expects spending on business travel worldwide to hit a historic high of $1.57 trillion in 2025. Still, the group said its forecast shows a moderate increase of 6.6% this year because of global tensions over tariffs and uncertainty about policies.
A recent analysis by the association showed that industry professionals’ optimism about spending on travel dropped between April and June. Travel by federal employees, who are going through layoffs and the dismantling of government programs, has all “but dried up,” she said. There’s concern about cross-border travel, including whether people can get visas on time.
“There’s a lot of wait and see within our industry, but travel is still up,” Neufang said.
The industry group is standing by its prediction of a record year for revenue generated by business travel. The group’s travel index outlook released Monday projects that global spending will surpass $2 trillion by 2029. That’s a year later than predicted a year ago.
Denver has seen a 7% increase in business travel the first half of this year compared with the first half of 2024, according to FCM Travel and Corporate Traveler. An analysis by the companies said Denver is No. 13 out of all U.S. cities in terms of domestic bookings for business travel.
While the money spent on business travel is climbing, the volume of travel is still below pre-pandemic levels, said Neufang. “We’re probably still a couple of years away from volumes matching what they were in 2019.”
Factoring in inflation, Neufang said spending on business travel is about 14% below 2019.
While COVID-19 hit the travel industry hard, Neufang said the levels of spending by businesses had rebounded by 2022. However, some things changed. Coming out of the height of the pandemic, many companies reduced the number of short trips, opting for fewer, but longer trips. Neufang said companies considered whether travel aligned with the company’s priorities.
About 5,300 people from 52 countries attended the GBTA conference in Denver. Neufang said she heard from several attendees that they planned to spend time in Colorado before or after the convention.
“So, there are plenty of people becoming tourists while they’re on this business trip,” she said.
The big tax bill signed into law by President Donald Trump has won big kudos from national organizations as a win for workers and businesses.
But physical therapist Chris Edmundson said the new law will just aggravate the stress from rising costs that he and other small-business owners have struggled with over the past few years.
Edmundson, who runs eight physical therapy clinics in Colorado and one in Hawaii, called inflation a “national shock to the system.”
“And now this bill. It will put additional pressures on our company,” Edmundson said.
The biggest drawback to Edmundson is the impact on Medicaid and other health care programs. Many of the patients of Integral Physical Therapy are on Medicaid, a joint state-federal program that provides health care for children and people with low incomes and disabilities.
Edmundson, who has a doctorate in physical therapy, said he started his company nine years ago with the intention of expanding access for patients covered by Medicaid. “We’ve always prided ourselves on serving that population.”
However, Edmundson expects that the law’s changes in eligibility, more frequent reporting on recipients and work requirements will reduce the Medicaid rolls, leaving people without health care coverage and perhaps decreasing his business.
“People will suffer. That’s the thing that is most troubling,” Edmundson said. “And for us it’s going to lead to less overall patients coming through the door. That will mean there’s a possibility we have to lay people off, possibly providers and support staff.”
Doctor of physical therapy Jarod Maxon works with a patient at Integral Physical Therapy in Thornton, Colorado on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Hunter Nelson hears similar concerns from other small-business owners in Colorado. She is the director of the Colorado office of the Small Business Majority, a national organization.
“One third of Medicaid enrollees are connected to a small business. It’s going to impact our small-business owners as well as workers, especially in lower-wage sectors,” Nelson said.
An analysis by the Small Business Majority and Georgetown University found that 57% of small-business owners oppose cuts to Medicaid while only 23% would support cutbacks.
The legislation signed into law on the Fourth of July also allows for the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for people who buy health care plans through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. A national poll by the Small Business Majority showed that 74% of 504 small businesses surveyed favor extending the credits.
The failure to extend the federal subsidies is expected to drive up premiums on Colorado’s individual health care market by an average of 28% statewide, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. Costs in the western part of the state are projected to jump by over 38% next year.
Last year, about 321,000 people received subsidies for health care insurance on Colorado’s marketplace. The average statewide increase in premiums was 5.6% for 2025, according to the governor’s office.
Nelson said the end of the tax credits means that some Colorado business owners who want to buy health insurance for themselves or their employees won’t be able to. The Small Business Majority and others met with members of Congress while the tax bill was being debated and plan to keep sharing the stories of small business owners.
“We just need to make that message loud and clear. We’re going to see fallout from passage of the bill,” Nelson said.
The fallout could be widespread if Nelson’s fears materialize. A 2024 state report said the roughly 715,000 businesses classified as small comprised 99.5% of all Colorado businesses and employed about 1.1 million people.
In contrast to the Small Business Majority, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce praised the new law, saying that a competitive, pro-growth tax policy “is essential to strengthen the economy and raise wages for workers.”
The National Federation of Independent Business, NFIB, supported the legislation, calling it “one of the most pro-small-business pieces of legislation in recent history.” The law will prevent “a massive tax hike” on more than 33 million business owners and provide a tax cut for most small-business owners, the group said.
One of the victories cited by the NFIB is a provision making a small-business tax deduction permanent. The new law increases the deduction from 20% to 23% for businesses taxed at the individual rather than corporate level.
The Small Business Majority supported a bill to change the deduction by allowing businesses to deduct the first $25,000 in qualified business income from their annual tax obligations. Nelson said 74% of benefits under the current system flow to the wealthiest 5% of the businesses rather than typical Main Street entities.
“It would create more of a bottom-up tax reform structure that would also benefit more of our smaller businesses contributing to and powering our local economies,” Nelson said.
Edmundson said a provision in the tax bill that looks like a positive for his business isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Under the new law, health care providers are set to get a 2.5% bump in Medicare fees.
“That sounds really great. However, the fee was cut 2.83% in January, so it’s just restoring some of the money they took away,” Edmundson said.
Health care providers have seen cuts in Medicare fees for the last five years, Edmundson said. Medicare is the federal health insurance program for people 65 and older.
Edmundson worries about the effects of new work requirements for Medicaid recipients. Many able-bodied recipients between ages 19 and 64 will have to show they worked, attended school or volunteered for 80 hours per month.
In his practice, Edmundson said therapists work with people who might not qualify as being disabled but have debilitating conditions that make working difficult. He said physical therapy can get people back to work and living their lives without more expensive or intrusive treatments.
“We’re concerned as health care providers that this work requirement is going to preclude some people from completing their rehab,” he said. “Another concern I have is that we have some people — family members, friends of our patients — who stopped working to care for their loved ones and they need to be on Medicaid because of their lack of income.”
“There’s nothing about this bill or this way of thinking that helps the sort of business that I’m in. It certainly doesn’t help patients,” Edmundson said.
Mayor Mike Johnston urged Denverites to embrace a “learned hopefulness” as an antidote to the challenges Colorado’s largest city faces amid a tumultuous national political environment during his annual State of the City address Monday night.
“That is our dream for this precocious Queen City of the Plains, where we don’t believe in ‘can’t.’ We don’t believe in ‘impossible,’ ” the mayor said. “A place where we turn to each other, and not on each other. A place where we believe in working to build something bigger than us, that includes all of us and lasts longer than any of us.”
He cast his hopeful phrase as the opposite dynamic of “learned helplessness,” or the fear that no matter what someone does, it won’t make a difference.
Johnston, who last Thursday marked two years since being sworn into office, touched on homelessness, immigration, the revival of downtown Denver — with its 7 million square feet of vacant office space — and the city’s role in tackling climate change. Also, to knowing nods in the audience: the future of the Broncos in Denver.
“Yes, we will get a long-term deal to keep the Denver Broncos here in Denver,” the 50-year-old mayor said to several hundred people gathered for the 40-minute speech in the Seawell Ballroom at the Denver Performing Arts Complex. Unlike in past years, the usual daytime speech was delivered at an evening event.
Johnston has scored successes in his first two years. Street homelessness has decreased in visibility under his tenure, the result of a massive sheltering effort. On Monday, the mayor said that data point has dropped by 45% since 2023 in Denver — “the largest multiyear decrease in unsheltered homelessness of any city in American history.” (Overall homelessness has risen, however.)
“We’ve closed every large encampment in the city, and reopened sidewalks to pedestrians and businesses,” Johnston said. “We have moved 7,000 people off the streets and moved 5,000 people into permanent housing.”
But there are layoffs of city workers in the offing — the first in 15 years — amid an anticipated $250 million budget shortfall. Johnston spoke about several other areas of challenge for the city during his speech, saying that efforts so far have not been “good enough.”
“We still have business owners on Broadway who don’t feel safe having staff members close up the shop and walk to their cars after work, and that’s not good enough,” Johnston said. “We still have teachers leaving our schools and nurses leaving our hospitals to move back home to the Midwest, because they can’t afford to live in this city anymore, and that’s not good enough.”
The mayor said the city is on the right track when it comes to public safety, noting that Denver’s homicide rate this year has dropped by 46%.
“Adjusting for population, our homicide rate this year is the lowest in the last decade,” he said. “Auto theft is down by over 50%, and catalytic converter theft has dropped by over 90%.”
He credited some of that improvement to better interaction between police and residents.
“We have officers out walking beats, building relationships with our neighbors on trust patrols,” Johnston said. “And in the midst of turbulent political times, our officers have stood up for freedom of speech and kept the peace at more than 200 demonstrations — both large and small over these last two years.”
Developers have complained for years that the city’s cumbersome construction permitting process takes far too long, adding costs to projects. In April, Johnston signed his first executive order, creating the Denver Permitting Office.
“We took a process that used to take three years and made a promise: Your permit will be done in 180 days or we’ll refund up to $10,000 in fees,” he said to applause.
Mayor Mike Johnston speaks during the State of the City address in the Seawell Ballroom at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts on Monday, July 21, 2025. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
But relations between Johnston and the City Council have not always been smooth of late, with some council members expressing frustration with the mayor for not paying enough attention to their concerns. One of those sticking points has been a mammoth bond issue that is being pitched to voters in the November election.
Through the measure, the city would pay for projects like road and park improvements by issuing debt if voters approve the “Vibrant Denver” bond package this fall.
Earlier this year, city officials estimated the proposal would reach about $800 million, but the most recent version — which isn’t yet final — totals $935 million, including contingency and administration costs as well as some added projects requested by council members.
The winners, announced this week, were selected from a pool of more than 8,000 entries, according to competition organizers. In all, Colorado beer makers collected 29 awards — five gold medals, 12 silver and 12 bronze. That’s a decrease from last year, when local beer makers earned 38 accolades.
Judges awarded Bull & Bush Brewery, 4700 Cherry Creek Drive South in Glendale, three gold medals for its Pimp My Rye beer, its Royal Oil barrel-aged strong beer, and Nappy Nap Time tea beer. It also earned a silver and a bronze for a total of five medals – enough to earn the Grand National Champion title.
Notably, Colorado dominated the American IPA category with New Terrain Brewing Co. scoring silver and Cellar West Brewery in Lafayette scoring bronze.
The U.S. Open Beer Championship allows home brewers to compete with professionals, a rarity among contests. It served Castle Rock resident Christopher Burgess well; he scored silver in the Brut IPA category, the same category in which he placed in 2024.
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale inflation cooled last month, despite worries that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would push prices higher for goods before they reach consumers.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index was unchanged last month from May after rising 0.3% the previous month. June wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year gain since September. Both measures came in below what economists had expected.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so called core producer prices were also unchanged from May and up 2.6% from June 2024.
The report on wholesale inflation arrived a day after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices last month rose 2.7% from June 2024, the biggest year-over-year gain since February, as Trump’s sweeping tariffs pushed up the cost of everything from groceries to appliances.
Consumer prices and producers prices do not always move in tandem, however.
Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, saw some signs of the impact of Trump’s tariffs in a 0.3% increase in core wholesale goods prices. Furniture prices rose 1% from May and home electronics 0.8%, he noted. Both of those types of goods are heavily imported.
But producer prices at steel mills fell 5.5% despite Trump’s hefty 50% tax on imported steel.
Some companies bought products before Trump rolled out his tariffs and have relied on those inventories to keep a lid on prices. But Saunders warned that those inventories are running low and that Trump plans to impose stiff tariffs (such as 25% levies on Japanese and South Korean imports) starting Aug. 1.
“We are not out of the woods yet,’’ Saunders wrote in a commentary.
The producer price report showed that auto retailers’ profit margins dropped 5.4%, suggesting that car dealers were eating the cost of Trump’s 25% tariff on some imported cars and auto parts. That might explain why new vehicle prices fell last month in the consumer price report Tuesday.
“We doubt that auto retailers will continue to absorb the tariffs indefinitely,” wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, ”but they have room to fall a good deal further after they surged during the spike in sales as people sought to get ahead of tariffs on imported vehicles.”
Wholesale prices can offer an early look at where consumer inflation might be headed. Economists also monitor the report closely because some of its components, notably measures of health care and financial services, flow into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.
Inflation began to flare up for the first time in decades in 2021, as the economy roared back with unexpected strength from COVID-19 lockdowns. That prompted the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs helped bring inflation down from the peaks it reached in 2022, and last year the Fed felt comfortable enough with the progress to cut rates three times.
But it has turned cautious this year while it waits to see the inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies. Trump has aggressively stepped up pressure on the Fed to cut rates, which has been seen as a threat to the central bank’s independence.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of everything from groceries and clothes to furniture and appliances.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.
Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who as a candidate promised to immediately lower costs, but instead has engaged in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have jolted businesses and consumers. Trump insists that the U.S. effectively has no inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates.
Yet the new inflation numbers make it more likely that the central bank will leave rates where they are. Powell has said that he wants to gauge the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs before reducing borrowing costs.
Excluding volatile food and energy, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.
The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported.
“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years.
Winograd also noted that housing costs, a big inflation driver since the pandemic, have continued to cool, actually holding down broader inflation. The cost of rent rose 3.8% in June compared with a year ago, the smallest yearly increase since late 2021.
“Were it not for the tariff uncertainty, the Fed would already be cutting rates,” Winograd said. “The question is whether there is more to come, and the Fed clearly thinks there is,” along with most economists.
FILE – A shopper considers large-screen televisions on display in a Costco warehouse Oct. 3, 2024, in Timnath, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
Some items got cheaper last month, including new and used cars, hotel rooms, and airfares. Travel prices have generally declined in recent months as fewer international tourists visit the U.S.
A broader political battle over Trump’s tariffs is emerging, a fight that will ultimately be determined by how the U.S. public feels about their cost of living and whether the president is making good on his 2024 promise to help the middle class.
The White House pushed back on claims that the report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars fell despite the 25% tariffs on autos and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than three months ago.
“Consumer Prices LOW,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!”
For Democratic lawmakers, the inflation report confirmed their warnings over the past several months that Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation. They said Tuesday that it will only become more painful given the size of the tariff rates in the letters that Trump posted over the past week.
“For those saying we have not seen the impact of Trump’s tariff wars, look at today’s data. Americans continue to struggle with the costs of groceries and rent — and now prices of food and appliances are rising,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Many businesses built up a stockpile of goods this spring and were able to delay price hikes, while others likely waited to see if the duties would become permanent.
More businesses now appear to be throwing in the towel and passing on costs to consumers, including Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, which has said it raised prices in June. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement “surgical” price hikes.
Powell said last month that companies up and down the supply chain would seek to avoid paying tariffs, but that ultimately some combination of businesses and consumers would bear the cost.
“There’s the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, and the consumer, and each one of those is going to be trying not to be the one to pay for the tariff,” the Fed chair said. “But together, they will all pay for it together—or maybe one party will pay it all. But that process is very hard to predict, and we haven’t been through a situation like this.”
Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports plus 30% on goods from China. Last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1.
He has also threatened to slap 50% duties on Brazil, which would push up the cost of orange juice and coffee. Orange prices leaped 3.5% just from May to June, and are 3.4% higher than a year ago, the government said Tuesday.
Overall, grocery prices rose 0.3% last month and are up 2.4% from a year earlier. While that is a much smaller increase than after the pandemic, when inflation surged, it is slightly bigger than the pre-pandemic pace. The Trump administration has also placed a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes.
Families have cut spending on food as prices rise. Cassidy Grom, 29, her husband, and his mother are eating out less and try to stretch grocery store rotisserie chickens as far as possible, using them in salads and the bones for soup.
“It feels like a miracle if I’m able to leave the grocery store without spending $100,” the Edison, New Jersey resident said. “We’re trying to save for a house, we’re trying to save for a family, so prices are really on our mind.”
Accelerated inflation could provide a respite for Powell, who has come under withering fire from the White House over interest rates.
The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them.
Polis issued an executive order directing the Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade, or OEDIT, to form a task force to help state agencies to develop strategies to reduce the impacts of the Trump administration’s tariff policy and address the resulting uncertainty across the state’s economy.
Within 45 days of the order, the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting is expected to produce a report estimating the impact of tariffs in Colorado and, where possible, estimate the financial effects of the tariffs and potential future effects of current levies or those paused or delayed.
In 100 days, the leaders of the Colorado Department of Agriculture, OEDIT and the Department of Labor and Employment will submit plans to the governor’s office laying out how they will adapt state services and programs to meet the changing needs caused by U.S. tariff policy, according to the executive order.
Polis announced the executive order before meeting with small business owners in Boulder to discuss how tariffs and the on-again, off-again proposals to impose the taxes on various countries were affecting them. He said he heard “just devastating stories” from a high-tech health company, an apparel and outdoor clothing manufacturer and McGuckin Hardware, a third-generation business. The owners talked about staff reductions, having to raise prices and their fears of being able to keep the doors open.
“Just terrible stories across our economy, bad for consumers,” Polis said. “That’s one of the reasons we launched the executive order today, to help quantify that. It’s one thing to hear the stories, which are startling. But it’s another to back it up with real numbers, which we will be able to do through the executive order.”
The data will be shared with state agencies, Colorado’s congressional delegation and the Trump administration. “I don’t think any Colorado industry is untouched,” Polis said.
One of the points Polis said the governors want to make is that nearly all U.S. manufacturers use parts and supplies that come from other countries.
“If those are subject to tariffs coming in then a lot of that manufacturing will be offshored and moved overseas to avoid those tariffs,” Polis said. “It’s really a dangerous road we’re going down. I hope that the president heeds the call and I hope the information we’re putting together is helpful in helping him change his mind.”
Other Democratic governors who announced responses to Trump’s planned tariffs include Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker; Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs; New York Gov. Kathy Hochul; Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, and Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson. Pritzker, Hochul and Kotek all directed reviews of how tariffs are affecting the economy in their states.
Trump campaigned on hiking tariffs as ways to reduce trade deficits with other countries and to boost U.S. revenue. He unveiled sweeping tariffs on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day.” He then paused implementation for 90 days and further pushed back the launch to Aug. 1.
Tariffs levied by the administration include ones on steel, aluminum and cars.
Polis and Hunter Nelson, director of the Colorado office of the Small Business Majority, a national organization, said the uncertainty of when and whether more tariffs will hit is unnerving for business owners.
“We definitely are hearing a lot of concerns. There’s a lot of uncertainty. People are wondering what is going to be the long- term impact on their business, how do they begin to prepare for this,” Nelson said. “It’s a lot for an entrepreneur that’s already juggling the responsibilities of their day-to-day business.”
Many small businesses are operating on the margins and will have to raise prices if taxes on imports are imposed, Nelson said, putting them at a competitive disadvantage with larger businesses.
Polis said in addition to private companies, the state will review the effects of higher tariffs on state agencies.
“We are not exempt from tariffs, so just as consumers and individuals are forced to pay tariffs, so is the state,” Polis said.
That could lead to additional cutbacks because the state, already experiencing budget problems, would be forced to spend more “on everyday items just as you and I might around our kitchen table,” Polis added.
This story was updated July 14, 2025, at 4:50 p.m. to add details throughout.
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock indexes are hanging near their records on Monday following President Donald Trump’s latest updates to his tariffs, as speculation continues on Wall Street that the U.S president may ultimately back down on them.
The S&P 500 was edging down by 0.1% and still within 0.5% of its all-time high set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 25 points, or 0.1%, as of 10:15 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower.
Stock indexes elsewhere around the world were mixed in their first trading after Trump said over the weekend that he plans 30% tariffs on goods from Mexico and the European Union. They won’t take effect until Aug. 1, the same deadline that Trump announced last week for updated tax rates on imports from Japan, South Korea and a dozen other countries.
The latest postponements for Trump’s tariffs should allow more time for him to reach trade deals with other countries that could lower the tariff rates and prevent pain for international trade. They also feed into speculation that Trump may ultimately back down on his tariffs if they end up creating too much damage for the economy and for financial markets.
If Trump were to enact all his proposed tariffs on Aug. 1, they would raise the risk of a recession. That would not only hurt U.S. voters but also raise the pressure on the U.S. government’s debt level relative to the economy’s size, particularly after Washington approved big tax cuts that will add to the deficit.
“We therefore believe that the administration is using this latest round of tariff escalation to maximize its negotiating leverage and that it will ultimately de-escalate, especially if there is a new bout of heightened bond and stock market volatility,” according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“As usual, there are many conditions and clauses that can get these rates reduced,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “That’s probably why the market might not like the tariff talk, but it’s not panicking about it either.”
For the time being, all the uncertainty around tariffs could help keep markets unsteady. This upcoming week has several potential flashpoints that could shake things.
On Tuesday will come the latest reading on inflation across the United States. Economists expect it to show inflation accelerated to 2.6% last month from 2.4% in May.
Companies are also lining up to report how they performed during the spring. JPMorgan Chase and several other huge banks will report their latest quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday and PepsiCo on Thursday.
Fastenal, a distributor of industrial and construction supplies, on Monday reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its stock rose 5.8%, though it also said that market conditions remain sluggish.
Shares of Kenvue fell 1% after the former division of Johnson & Johnson said CEO Thibaut Mongon is stepping down. Kenvue, the maker of Listerine and Band-Aid brands, is in the midst of a strategic review of its options, “including ways to simplify the company’s portfolio and how it operates,” according to Larry Merlo, the board’s chair.
Waters slumped 12% after saying it had agreed to merge with Becton, Dickinson and Co.’s biosciences and diagnostic solutions business in a deal valued at roughly $17.5 billion.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.41% from 4.43% late Friday.
In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe. Germany’s DAX lost 0.8%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.5%. But indexes rose 0.8% in South Korea and 0.3% in Hong Kong.
Chinese shares advanced after the government reported that exports rose last month as a truce in a tariffs war prompted a surge in orders ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline for reaching a new trade deal with Washington.
Some of the biggest moves in financial markets were for crypto, where bitcoin has been setting records. Bitcoin rose another 2.5% to top $121,000, according to CoinDesk.
This upcoming week is “Crypto Week” in Washington, where Congress will be considering several bills to “make America the crypto capital of the world.”
AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said in a letter that he will raise taxes on many imported goods from Canada to 35%, deepening a rift between two North American countries that have suffered a debilitating blow to their decades-old alliance.
The Thursday letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is an aggressive increase to the top 25% tariff rates that Trump first imposed in March after months of threats. Trump’s tariffs were allegedly in an effort to get Canada to crack down on fentanyl smuggling despite the relatively modest trafficking in the drug from that country. Trump has also expressed frustration with a trade deficit with Canada that largely reflects oil purchases by America.
“I must mention that the flow of Fentanyl is hardly the only challenge we have with Canada, which has many Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers,” Trump wrote in the letter.
The higher rates would go into effect Aug. 1, creating a tense series of weeks ahead for the global economy as recent gains in the S&P 500 stock index suggest many investors think Trump will ultimately back down on the increases. But stock market futures were down early Friday in a sign that Trump’s wave of tariff letters may be starting to generate concern among investors.
In a social media post, Carney said Canada would continue to work toward a new trade framework with the U.S. and has made “vital progress to stop the scourge of fentanyl.”
“Through the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and business,” Carney said.
While multiple countries have received tariff letters this week, Canada — America’s second largest trading partner after Mexico — has become something of a foil to Trump. It has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and pushed back on the president’s taunts of making Canada the 51st state. Mexico has also faced 25% tariffs because of fentanyl, yet it has not faced the same public pressure from the Republican U.S. president.
Carney was elected prime minister in April on the argument that Canadians should keep their “elbows up.” He has responded by distancing Canada from its intertwined relationship with the U.S., seeking to strengthen its links with the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Hours before Trump’s letter, Carney posted on X a picture of himself with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying, “In the face of global trade challenges, the world is turning to reliable economic partners like Canada.” Implied in his statement was that the U.S. has become unreliable because of Trump’s haphazard tariff regime, which has gone through aggressive threats and reversals.
When Carney went to the White House in May, the public portion of their meeting was cordial. But Trump said there was nothing the Canadian leader could tell him to remove the tariffs, saying, “Just the way it is.”
Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said Trump’s latest move will make it more difficult for Canada and the U.S. to reach a trade deal, Beland said.
“It doesn’t mean a new trade deal between Canada and the United States is impossible, but it shows how hard it is for the Canadian government to negotiate with a U.S. president who regularly utters threats and doesn’t appear to be a reliable and truthful interlocutor,” he said.
Trump has sent a series of tariff letters to 23 countries. Those form letters became increasingly personal with Canada as well as a Wednesday note that put a 50% tariff on Brazil for the ongoing trial of its former President Jair Bolsonaro for trying to stay in office after his 2022 election loss. Trump was similarly indicted for his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump administration officials have said that Trump was seeking to isolate its geopolitical rival China with the tariffs, but the latest tariffs have undermined that message. Brazil’s largest trading partner is China, not the U.S., and Chinese government officials have framed his import taxes as a form of bullying.
“Sovereign equality and non-interference in internal affairs are important principles of the U.N. Charter and basic norms governing international relations,” said Mao Ning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman. “Tariffs should not be used as a tool for coercion, bullying and interference in the internal affairs of other countries.”
The letters reflect the inability of Trump to finalize the dozens of trade frameworks that he claimed would be easy to negotiate. Shortly after unveiling his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, a financial market selloff caused Trump to announce a 90-day negotiating period during which a 10% baseline tariff would be charged on most imported goods.
But Trump has indicated that the 10% tariff rates are largely disappearing as he resets the rates with his letters.
“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%,” Trump said in a phone interview with NBC News.
Trump has announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam, as well as a separate deal with China to enable continued trade talks. Trump jacked up import taxes on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, but after talks he has said China faces total tariffs of 55%.
In June, Trump said he was suspending trade talks with Canada over its plans to continue its digital services tax, which would hit U.S. technology companies. A few days later, talks resumed when Carney rescinded the tax.
Under the current tariff structure, the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement has protected eligible goods from Trump’s tariffs. But a review of the pact is scheduled for 2026.
Jim Morris contributed to this report from Vancouver, British Columbia.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and his advisers promised a lightning round of global trade negotiations with dozens of countries back in April.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro predicted “90 deals in 90 days.’’ Administration officials declared that other countries were desperate to make concessions to avoid the massive import taxes – tariffs — that Trump was threatening to plaster on their products starting July 9.
But the 90 days have come and gone. And the tally of trade deals stands at two – one with the United Kingdom and one with Vietnam. Trump has also announced the framework for a deal with China, the details of which remain fuzzy.
Trump has now extended the deadline for negotiations to Aug. 1 and tinkered with his threatened tariffs, leaving the global trading system pretty much where it stood three months ago — in a state of limbo as businesses delay decisions on investments, contracts and hiring because they don’t know what the rules will be.
“It’s a rerun, basically,’’ said William Reinsch, a former U.S. trade official who’s now an adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. Trump and his team “don’t have the deals they want. So they’re piling on the threats.”
The pattern has repeated itself enough times to earn Trump the label TACO — an acronym coined by The Financial Times’ Robert Armstrong that stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
“This is classic Trump: Threaten, threaten more, but then extend the deadline,” Reinsch said. “July 30 arrives, does he do it again if he still doesn’t have the deals?’’ (Trump said Tuesday that there will be no more extensions.)
The deal drought represents a collision with reality.
Negotiating simultaneously with every country on earth was always an impossible task, as Trump himself belatedly admitted last month in an interview with the Fox News Channel. (“There’s 200 countries,’’ the president said. “You can’t talk to all of them.’’) And many trading partners — such as Japan and the European Union — were always likely to balk at Trump’s demands, at least without getting something in return.
“It’s really, really hard to negotiate trade agreements,” which usually takes several months even when it involves just one country or a small regional group, said Chad Bown, an economic adviser in the Obama White House and now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “What the administration is doing is negotiating a bunch of these at the same time.’’
The 10% baseline tariffs appear to be here to stay. Trump needs them to raise money to patch the hole his massive tax-cut bill is blasting into the federal budget deficit.
By themselves, the baseline tariffs represent a massive shift in American trade policy: Tariffs averaged around 2.5% when Trump returned to the White House and were even lower before he started raising them in his first term.
But the reciprocal tariffs are an even bigger deal.
In announcing them, Trump effectively blew up the rules governing world trade. For decades, the United States and most other countries abided by tariff rates set through a series of complex negotiations known as the Uruguay round. Countries could set their own tariffs – but under the “most favored nation’’ approach, they couldn’t charge one country more than they charged another.
Now Trump is setting the tariff rates himself, creating “tailor-made trade plans for each and every country on this planet,’’ in the words of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
But investors have recoiled at the audacious plan, fearing that it will disrupt trade and damage the world economy. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, for instance, set off a four-day rout in global financial markets. Trump blinked. Less than 13 hours after the reciprocal tariffs took effect April 9, he abruptly suspended them for 90 days, giving countries time to negotiate with his trade team.
Despite the Trump administration’s expressions of confidence, the talks turned into a slog.
“Countries have their own politics, their own domestic politics,” Reinsch said. “Trump structured this ideally so that all the concessions are made by the other guys and the only U.S. concession is: We don’t impose the tariffs.’’
But countries like South Korea and Japan needed “to come back with something,’’ he said. Their thinking: “We have to get some concessions out of the United States to make it look like this is a win-win agreement and not a we-fold-and-surrender agreement. ”
Countries may also be hesitant to reach a deal with the United States while the Trump administration conducts investigations that might result in new tariffs on a range of products, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump on Monday sent letters to Japan, South Korea and 12 other countries, saying he’d hit them with tariffs Aug. 1 if they couldn’t reach an agreement. The levies were close to what he’d announced on April 2; Japan’s, for example, would be 25%, compared to the 24% unveiled April 2.
Trump did sign an agreement last month with the United Kingdom that, among other provisions, reduced U.S. tariffs on British automotive and aerospace products while opening the U.K. market for American beef and ethanol. But the pact kept the baseline tariff on British products mostly in place, underlining Trump’s commitment to the 10% tax despite the United States running a trade surplus — not a deficit — with the U.K. for 19 straight years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.
On July 2. Trump announced a deal with Vietnam. The Vietnamese agreed to let U.S. products into the country duty free while accepting a 20% tax on their exports to the United States, Trump said, though details of the agreement have not been released.
The lopsided deal with Vietnam suggests that Trump can successfully use the tariff threat to bully concessions out of smaller economies.
“They just can’t really negotiate in the same way that the (European Union) or Korea or Japan (or) Canada can negotiate with the United States,’’ said Dan McCarthy, principal in McCarthy Consulting and a former official with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in the Biden administration. “A lot of (smaller) countries just want to get out of this and are willing to cut their losses.’’
But wrangling a deal with bigger trading partners is likely to remain tougher.
“The U.S. is gambling that these countries will ultimately be intimidated and fold,” Reinsch said. “And the countries are gambling that the longer this stretches out, and the longer it goes without Trump producing any more deals, the more desperate he gets; and he lowers his standards.
